Canada’s mining sector could attract a larger share of global investment capital as demand for critical minerals rises, development spending increases and government support grows, according to a new outlook from BMO Global Metals & Mining.
The analysis comes ahead of the Canada Investment Summit, scheduled for September 14-15, an event aimed at bringing together major global investors and business leaders. According to Matthew Murphy of BMO Global Metals & Mining, the summit aims to help catalyze $1 trillion in total investment in Canada over the next five years, with the federal government identifying critical minerals as a key area for attracting that capital.
Canada already holds significant global standing in mining production, ranking as the world’s largest potash producer, second-largest uranium producer, and fourth-largest producer of both gold and refined aluminum. BMO notes that the country’s mining expertise, industry leadership, and government regulators focused on domestic industry development provide a strong foundation for further growth.
Development spending in the sector is also rebounding. As of 2025, companies had planned roughly C$120 billion in spending on projects listed in Natural Resources Canada’s 10-year Major Projects Inventory outlook, according to Murphy. That figure is C$50 billion higher than in the 2018 outlook, though still considerably below the previous cycle’s peak of approximately C$220 billion in real 2026 dollars.
BMO Equity Research forecasts that annual Canadian development capital expenditures will grow by more than 11% over the next two years. The bank estimates that mining companies within its coverage will spend a combined C$350 billion over the next five years on operating costs, sustaining capital, and growth projects tied to Canadian metal and mineral production.
BMO’s report calls for a shift in investment focus from upstream extraction toward downstream production, which it says would help establish more complete, end-to-end supply chains within Canada. The bank points to several priority areas for future investment, including domestic copper smelting and refining, capture of by-products, materials used in battery precursors, rare earth element separation, and other specialized materials processing.
Infrastructure investment is also highlighted as a critical enabler, with the potential to open new mining districts across regions including British Columbia, Ontario’s Ring of Fire, and Nunavut, spanning commodities such as gold, nickel and lithium.
Given the strategic importance of critical minerals, BMO suggests that developing specialized supply chains may require government involvement in cases where market economics alone are not sufficient to support investment. Murphy said that targeted price supports for certain commodities, along with capital and regulatory support for vertical integration, could help make downstream portions of critical-mineral supply chains more commercially viable. Such measures, the report notes, could help address challenges including price volatility, limited domestic processing capacity, and competition for investment capital.
The report also points to infrastructure financing as another avenue for growth. According to Murphy, separating infrastructure investment from mine development could draw in specialized infrastructure funds, potentially lowering the cost of capital and freeing mining companies to direct more resources toward production capacity and downstream facilities.
BMO further notes that while Canadians are already investing in the mining sector, more of that capital could be deployed domestically. The report identifies an opportunity for greater mining infrastructure investment from Canadian pension funds, which collectively manage roughly C$4.5 trillion in assets but remain under-allocated to domestic opportunities. Murphy said better alignment in this area could allow pension funds to pursue more competitive risk-adjusted returns at home, while helping finance the infrastructure and mining capacity needed to develop new resource districts.
Canada has long been home to major mining companies and has attracted global players in the sector, including Agnico Eagle, which is based in Canada, as well as international firms such as Glencore and BHP. BMO’s analysis suggests that the investment opportunity extends well beyond financing individual mining projects, encompassing infrastructure, mineral production, processing, and other downstream industries needed to build out more complete domestic supply chains.
With what it describes as growing alignment among government, regulators and the public, BMO concludes that Canada’s mining sector has the potential to offer competitive risk-adjusted returns capable of drawing in greater investment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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