Canada’s condominium market has become the epicentre of a broader national housing correction, with prices for multi-family units falling faster than any other property type even as some regional markets show early signs of stabilization.
According to the RPS-Wahi House Price Index, national home values fell 3% year over year in August. But the pain was concentrated in multi-family housing: row and townhouse values dropped 7% year over year, while condo prices declined 6%. Detached and semi-detached homes each fell a more modest 3%, with some markets even holding in positive territory for single-family properties.
Investor Pullback Deepens the Slide
The steepest declines remain concentrated in southern Ontario, where Toronto and Hamilton each posted year-over-year price drops of 7% in August, per RPS-Wahi data. Ryan McLaughlin, economist at RPS and Wahi, said economic uncertainty has stalled the broader housing recovery this summer, though “not all markets are affected equally,” with some property types proving more resilient than others.
Toronto’s condo segment has shown few signs of recovery since the start of 2026, with oversupply and weakened rental demand weighing heavily on investor-held units, according to Canadian Mortgage Professional. Dan Eisner, founder and chief executive officer of True North Mortgage in Calgary, said he sees no near-term resolution to the glut. “I don’t see a bottom yet,” Eisner said.
RBC Economics, in its regional housing analysis, noted that Toronto’s tentative recovery has faltered amid escalating trade uncertainty, with resales falling 1.3% seasonally adjusted in August and the benchmark price index slipping after a series of monthly gains. RBC pointed to depressed housing starts — particularly among condos, which have contracted sharply over the past two years — as a factor that should tighten supply structurally in coming quarters.
Regional Splits Widen
Condo weakness has spread well beyond Ontario and British Columbia into Alberta and other markets, per RPS-Wahi. In Calgary, condos have absorbed most of the pressure from softening demand, with prices sitting 8% below year-ago levels, while detached homes in the city declined just 1.1% annually. Calgary’s overall market returned to a flat 0% year-over-year reading in August, an improvement from a 1% decline in July, aided by steadier single-family values.
On the West Coast, Vancouver and Victoria both registered year-over-year declines of 3% — a narrower contraction than British Columbia endured through much of the first half of 2026. RBC estimated Vancouver resales rose 8.5% seasonally adjusted from July, alongside a 12% month-over-month jump in new listings, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio back into buyer-friendly territory. Still, RBC continues to rank Vancouver as the weakest of Canada’s six largest markets.
Elsewhere, the picture looks different. Quebec City continued to lead the country with values up 11% year over year in August, driven by chronic supply constraints that the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says are unlikely to ease soon. Montreal and Regina each posted gains of 6%, supported by relative affordability and tight inventory, with Regina benefiting from interprovincial migration and a limited new-build pipeline.
A Narrow Path to Affordability
Even amid the broader condo downturn, pockets of relative affordability persist. A Toronto Star analysis found that in at least one Toronto neighbourhood, a household income of roughly $77,000 a year is enough to enter the condo market — a notable contrast to the affordability barriers facing buyers in the city’s more expensive submarkets.
Looking ahead, RBC Economics has said the condo market is expected to take longer to recover than the rest of the housing sector, citing high inventory in Toronto and Vancouver along with continued investor apathy. Assistant chief economist Robert Hogue said national home resales are projected to fall 3.6% this year to 453,200 units, with the benchmark price index declining 2.3% to $794,200, before a modest rebound next year to 483,600 units in sales and a benchmark value of $800,700. Hogue cautioned that any turnaround would not be “transformative,” noting Canada has seen four false starts to recovery since 2023 as external shocks — including trade disputes — have repeatedly derailed improvement. He added that trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs imposed in late August and threats of further levies on autos starting in 2027, remain a risk to the broader confidence needed to draw sidelined buyers back into the market.
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