A leading voice for Canadian business is cautioning that prolonged uncertainty over North American trade could discourage investment, even as Ottawa works to broaden its economic relationships worldwide.
Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, told Fox Business that Canadian companies still regard the United States as their most important market, even as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government moves to attract capital and expand trade ties with Europe and other regions. Hyder described the approach as adding partners rather than replacing the country’s primary one, comparing it to a lemonade stand that would struggle to survive with only one customer.
“The United States is and will be our most important trading partner,” Hyder said.
A Deteriorating Trade Relationship
The comments come as commercial relations between the two allies have sharply worsened. Nearly 68% of Canadian exports have gone to the U.S. this year, with roughly 80% of those shipments crossing duty-free under exemptions in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, according to Canadian and U.S. government data cited by Reuters.
Washington and Ottawa have imposed new trade restrictions on each other in recent weeks after negotiations broke down, raising doubts about the USMCA’s future. The agreement remains in force, though the U.S. declined to renew it in its current form during a July review and has continued talks with its North American partners.
“Business does not welcome uncertainty, it shuns uncertainty, and there’s too much of that,” Hyder said, warning that the unpredictable environment “can create capital chill” and breed hesitancy among businesses.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce echoed the concern. Neil Herrington, the Chamber’s senior vice president for the Americas, told Fox Business that restoring certainty to a North American economic partnership supporting 13 million U.S. jobs is essential for businesses and investors. He said the Chamber wants an outcome that eliminates tariffs and broader trade restrictions while keeping the arrangement trilateral.
Ottawa’s Push to Diversify
Carney’s government has set a goal of helping catalyze 1 trillion Canadian dollars in investment over five years, targeting sectors including energy, mining, technology and infrastructure, as part of an effort to position Canada as a more diversified destination for global capital.
Canada has also deepened its outreach to Europe, its second-largest trading partner after the U.S. Total trade between Canada and the EU reached $178 billion last year, according to Global Affairs Canada spokesperson Renelle Arsenault, who said Ottawa remains committed to a “fair and stable economic relationship” with the U.S. while diversifying its trade and investment ties.
Hyder cautioned against interpreting this outreach as a substitute for North American economic integration, saying he does not foresee Canada pursuing deeper regulatory, tax or other integration with Europe, since it is “nowhere near as competitive” as the arrangement under USMCA, which he called the country’s “foundational trade architecture.”
Canada-U.S. Trade by the Numbers
Betting on a Trilateral Deal
Hyder dismissed suggestions that separate U.S. negotiations with Canada and Mexico signal the breakdown of the three-country trade framework, saying “all roads point to a merger” and that businesses want a “timely, trilateral, tariff-exempt” review and renewal of the USMCA.
Global Affairs Canada said all three countries “would benefit from restoring greater certainty” to the North American free-trade arrangement. Hyder pointed to energy, nuclear power, food security and critical minerals as areas where the three countries could deepen cooperation and strengthen North American supply chains, adding that the goal should be for the U.S., Mexico and Canada to work together to compete globally rather than at one another’s expense.
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