Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy told delegates at the Global Business Forum in Banff that the idea of a U.S. military invasion of Canada is not something the average American takes seriously, even as the two countries remain locked in an escalating trade dispute.
Dunleavy’s remarks came a day after Prime Minister Mark Carney told The New York Times he had a responsibility to consider the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada as an “extreme tail risk,” a comment Carney described as part of standard government risk management rather than an expectation. Dunleavy said an earlier forum session discussing why Canada might even weigh such a scenario left him stunned.
“The idea that America would attack Canada is shocking to the average American on the ground,” Dunleavy told the crowd, adding he considers the odds of such an event essentially nonexistent. The two-term Republican governor pointed out that the last serious American incursion into Canadian territory dates back to 1775, when Benedict Arnold’s forces marched into Quebec.
Trade Tensions Persist Despite Existing Deal
The comments unfolded against the backdrop of a trade war between the two countries that continues despite an existing free trade agreement. Before his 2025 inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump had suggested he might use economic rather than military pressure to bring Canada under U.S. control.
Jody Thomas, a former national security and intelligence adviser to ex-prime minister Justin Trudeau and a former deputy minister of national defence, addressed Carney’s comments during a separate forum session. She said governments routinely examine a full range of scenarios to understand potential risks and response options, but stressed she saw no indication of active planning for a land invasion of Canada. Asked directly whether such a scenario could occur, she said she does not believe it ever would.
Survey Shows Divergent Views on Tariffs
Dunleavy noted the close co-operation between Alaska and Yukon, describing Canadians as close partners rather than adversaries. He said that despite political rhetoric, ordinary Americans’ views of Canada have not shifted.
A survey conducted by polling firm Public First for the news organization Politico, released earlier in the week, found that 77 per cent of Americans consider good relations with Canada important, a sentiment matched by an identical 77 per cent of Canadians surveyed about the relationship. However, the same survey found a sharp divide over the motivations behind the latest round of U.S. tariffs imposed in August, with 60 per cent of Canadian respondents believing the tariffs were introduced out of spite to damage Canada’s economy, compared with 30 per cent who viewed them as intended to benefit the U.S. economy.
Survey on U.S.-Canada Relations and Tariffs
Scotty Greenwood, a former U.S. diplomat and founding partner of Washington-based advisory firm Ottawa Street Strategy, said the governor’s remarks highlighted a broader communication gap between the two countries. Greenwood, formerly chief executive of the Canadian American Business Council, said the exchange showed people on both sides of the border are “talking past each other,” and noted Canadian concerns extend beyond military risk to worries about economic subordination that the governor did not directly address. She added it was reassuring for Canadians to hear that rhetoric from the White House is not echoed even among the president’s closest political allies.
In a separate interview, Dunleavy reiterated that the Canada-U.S. relationship remains fundamentally strong, urging Canadians to look past political rhetoric at the top levels of government and trust that everyday American sentiment toward Canada has not changed.
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