Drivers in Moose Jaw are paying record prices for diesel, even as gasoline has yet to reach the highs seen a few years ago, according to GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan.
DeHaan said regular gasoline in Moose Jaw was sitting around 179.9 cents per litre at the time of his interview, well below the roughly 207 cents per litre recorded in 2022. Diesel, however, has moved in the opposite direction. DeHaan said Moose Jaw’s diesel price was about 262 cents per litre, surpassing the 219.9 cents per litre seen in 2022.
Across the country, the average price for regular gasoline was just under 180 cents per litre on Sunday, according to GasBuddy data, down 2.8 cents from the previous week. Diesel has told a different story nationally as well — GasBuddy reported earlier this month that the Canadian average price for diesel surpassed $2.50 per litre, setting a new record.
Geopolitical Tensions Keeping Pressure on Prices
DeHaan said he does not expect gasoline to reach its previous record at this point, though he cautioned the outlook remains uncertain. He pointed to several geopolitical factors weighing on fuel markets, including tensions between the United States and Iran, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.
DeHaan said prices are likely to stay elevated until those tensions ease. He noted that alternatives such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have been used amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, but that infrastructure has also faced its own interruptions.
Refining Capacity, Not Crude, Seen as the Core Issue
DeHaan said North American refineries are generally in better shape than they were in recent weeks, with some outages improving, although seasonal maintenance is underway and Canada’s largest refinery, located in Saint John, N.B., remains offline for maintenance.
He said the larger problem is global refining capacity rather than the price of crude oil itself. Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have significantly cut Russia’s diesel exports, tightening an already constrained global market. DeHaan said refineries in Canada and the U.S. have already been running at some of their highest rates in years, leaving little spare capacity to absorb disruptions elsewhere.
At the time of the interview, DeHaan pegged crude oil at about US$91 per barrel, with the December West Texas Intermediate contract trading around US$88. He said the challenge currently lies in converting crude into refined products rather than in the price of crude itself.
Export Restrictions and Other Factors Under Watch
DeHaan said he is also monitoring the possibility that the United States could restrict diesel exports. The Trump administration has reportedly been considering several options to address high diesel prices, including potential export restrictions, a move that has drawn opposition from parts of the petroleum industry over concerns about supply disruptions. DeHaan said it is too early to say what such a measure would mean for Canada, though he noted it could have major implications for diesel prices globally given how closely linked the Canadian and U.S. fuel markets are.
On developments in Venezuela’s oil industry, DeHaan said he does not expect any immediate relief for Canadian consumers, since Canada does not receive oil from Venezuela. He added that increased Venezuelan production could eventually affect global oil prices over the longer term.
Asked whether temporarily reducing fuel taxes could ease pump prices, DeHaan said he had not reviewed specific Canadian proposals in detail but noted that tax suspensions are generally passed through to retail prices, depending on how they are structured.
DeHaan said the future direction of gasoline and diesel prices will largely depend on how global geopolitical tensions and refining capacity evolve in the coming weeks.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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