Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told a large rally in Calgary that Monday’s referendum on Alberta’s future within Canada comes at a moment of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, as the province weighs whether to direct its government to begin a legal process toward a future independence vote.
Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, is not voting directly on separation Monday. Instead, residents will decide whether the province should remain part of Canada or instruct its government to pursue the legal steps that could lead to a future referendum on independence.
Speaking at the Forever Canadian rally at Calgary’s BMO Centre, which organizers estimated drew about 5,000 people, Carney said the vote arrives as global conditions have become more unstable. He said parties outside Canada’s borders are working to weaken the country, a remark made against the backdrop of a trade war waged by U.S. President Donald Trump and Trump’s repeated statements about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state. Carney has said Canada needs to build greater economic resilience and reduce its dependence on the United States.
Carney Points to Pipeline as Economic Case
Carney cited the proposed Pacific Link pipeline as evidence of a shifting relationship between Ottawa and Alberta, saying the project would create more than 140,000 jobs and generate revenue for social programs. He said the pipeline would also reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States, a comment that drew strong applause from the crowd.
Carney has fast-tracked the pipeline proposal and described Canada as an energy superpower, a departure from some of the policies pursued under his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Alberta has long clashed with Liberal governments in Ottawa over energy and federal authority, making Carney’s reception in the province notable.
Carney also acknowledged grievances that have fueled frustration in Alberta, saying the province had at times been made to feel its resources and energy contributions were not valued by the rest of the country. He urged Albertans not to treat the vote as a simple message to Ottawa, warning that a decisive result against remaining in Canada would create prolonged division and uncertainty.
Separatist Leaders Push Back
Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, said Carney’s agreements with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith amount to informal commitments that do not address longstanding disputes with Ottawa. Fellow group leader Keith Wilson disputed Carney’s framing of the timing as unfavorable, and said Carney should ask Parliament to repeal federal measures that separatists argue have harmed Alberta’s energy sector, including authority Wilson said could be used to tax oil exports in response to the U.S. trade dispute. Wilson predicted Carney would eventually impose such a tax, even though Carney has said he sees no benefit in using Canadian energy exports as leverage against the United States.
Premier Smith, who called the referendum but supports Alberta remaining in Canada, said after casting her ballot that she believes change is still possible within the federation, while noting that support for separation remains higher than she would like.
Political Backdrop and Advance Voting
Political science professor Daniel Béland of McGill University described Carney’s popularity in Alberta as unusual for a Liberal prime minister, attributing part of it to what he called a “Trump effect,” in which the U.S. trade war and statehood remarks have rallied Canadians, including some in Alberta, around the federal government.
The push for Alberta independence gained momentum following the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests, as activists who had organized against pandemic restrictions shifted their focus toward the separation movement. Clemens said the pandemic period helped organizers build political capital that they later applied to the independence campaign, and said separatists view Monday’s vote as a way to strengthen Alberta’s negotiating position with Ottawa, regardless of the outcome.
Advance voting continues through Saturday, with the final vote scheduled for Monday.
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