Canada’s recreational property market is entering what industry watchers describe as a more disciplined phase, as cross-border tax changes in the United States and persistent affordability pressures at home push some buyers to reconsider where — and how — they invest in a second property.
In Florida, a ballot measure known as Amendment 3 is drawing attention from Canadian snowbirds who have long used the state as a winter base. The constitutional amendment, backed by Governor Ron DeSantis, would raise the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes to US$150,000 in 2027 and US$250,000 in 2028, up from the current US$51,411. Because that exemption applies only to an owner’s permanent residence, seasonal Canadian owners generally would not qualify. DeSantis has been direct about the intent, saying, “I don’t want to give Canadians a tax cut.” The amendment would also lower the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead properties — which includes many Canadian-owned vacation homes — to 5% from the current 10%. The Florida Revenue Estimating Conference projected in June that the change would eventually cut local non-school property tax revenue by about US$11.9 billion a year, a shortfall that would need to be absorbed elsewhere in the state’s tax base.
Canadian Demand for US Property Holds, But Interest Shifts Homeward
Despite the looming change, Canadian appetite for US property has not disappeared. Canadians accounted for 37.8% of international home-shopping activity on Realtor.com in the first quarter of 2026, according to data cited by Mortgage Professional America. Even so, some owners have been pulling back from the US market, with a number reinvesting proceeds from US home sales into Toronto’s housing market instead.
Speaking at MortgageFest Canada in Toronto in September, Tracy Valko, founder of AIMI Mortgage Collective, said domestic entry points have become more attainable than they were a few years ago. “Buying a home that’s worth $450,000 to $500,000 is realistic. Where it wasn’t like that three years ago. And if they’ve been sitting on the sidelines, hesitant to buy, they’ve saved more money,” she said.
Financing Costs Remain a Wild Card
That improved affordability picture could be tested by rising borrowing costs. Grant Armstrong, chief growth officer at WealthOne Bank of Canada, said at the same event that rates could climb further. “I think rates will probably go up in October. GIC rates are up 35 points in the last sixty to ninety days. Bank of Canada bond rates are up 60 points,” he said. Joe Flor, vice-president of national sales and broker relations at CMI Financial, was more measured about the near-term outlook, saying a recovery depends on consumer sentiment: “What we need to see is consumer confidence again. And we started to see that, and hopefully it continues into 2027.”
Affordability Trade-Offs Extend Beyond Primary Homes
The pressure to compromise is not limited to snowbird or recreational buyers. A Re/Max Canada survey found that 65% of Canadians would make at least one trade-off to afford a larger or more suitable home, and 63% said they would relocate to a home that better meets their needs. Among respondents, 31% said they would live farther from a city centre, while 20% said they would consider an older home or one needing renovations. Beyond location and property type, 41% said they would cut discretionary spending such as travel and dining out, 24% would extend their mortgage amortization period, and 21% said they would accept financial help from family. Re/Max Canada president Don Kottick said the pattern reflects a shift in strategy rather than a retreat from ownership altogether. “There’s a difference between compromising and settling,” he said. “Rather than giving up on homeownership, Canadians are making different choices about how to get there.” The firm’s fall 2026 outlook also noted that home sales declined in 81% of markets analyzed in the first seven months of the year, even as average prices rose in 56% of markets, with 32% of markets expected to sit firmly in buyers’ territory this fall.
When the Search for a Getaway Goes Further Afield
For some Canadians, the search for an affordable recreational property has moved well beyond North America. Andrew Koller, a 31-year-old Edmonton-based camera operator, purchased a home in rural Yamagata, Japan, for $15,000 CAD plus about $3,000 CAD in closing costs, after finding it increasingly difficult to justify a second property purchase in Canada. He noted that his primary residence is worth just under $600,000 CAD, and a rental property he and his family bought a decade ago for around $500,000 CAD has also appreciated. Koller said he does not view the Japanese property as a financial asset, but as a low-cost recreational getaway near a ski resort, cautioning that outside Tokyo and other major cities, Japanese real estate “always goes down in value over time.” His experience illustrates how some Canadians priced out of traditional cottage country are weighing unconventional, lower-cost alternatives abroad rather than competing in Canada’s domestic recreational property market.
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