BANFF, ALTA. — Business leaders, economists and policymakers gathered at the Global Business Forum in Banff this week to consider a question rarely asked in day-to-day economic analysis: what could the world economy look like a century from now.
Chris Bradley, a senior partner with global consulting firm McKinsey & Co. and co-author of the book “A Century of Plenty,” told the opening of the forum on Thursday that sustained economic growth over the next hundred years could bring widespread prosperity, provided governments and businesses prioritize investment and productivity gains. He argued that gross domestic product per capita should be the central goal for political and business leaders alike, describing it as a metric that produces more good outcomes and fewer bad ones.
Bradley said his analysis found that reaching a level of global prosperity comparable to what only a handful of wealthy countries currently enjoy would require the world economy to grow to roughly 8.5 times its current size, implying an average annual growth rate of about 2.6 per cent. He said the necessary materials, energy, food supply and new ideas exist to achieve that scale of growth within climate constraints, framing the challenge as ultimately a cultural one rather than a resource constraint.
He pointed to the past century’s advances — including a roughly 40-year increase in average global lifespans — as evidence that major economic transformation is achievable, while acknowledging that near-term data can obscure longer-term progress.
Near-Term Outlook Clouded by Uncertainty
While Bradley’s remarks focused on the long arc of growth, the forum also grappled with a far murkier short- and medium-term picture, shaped by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, an intensifying energy supply crunch, elevated inflation, trade tensions and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence.
A new report released this week by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast global economic growth averaging 2.9 per cent this year and three per cent in 2027. The OECD said global prospects remain heavily dependent on whether a durable resolution to the Middle East conflict is reached, noting that energy prices have risen again amid disruptions to production and exports in Gulf economies. It also flagged that ongoing changes to trade policy, including tariffs and export restrictions, are adding to policy uncertainty and contributing to supply disruptions.
For Canada specifically, the OECD projected economic expansion of 0.9 per cent this year, a downgrade of 0.3 percentage points from its June outlook, with inflation averaging 2.8 per cent. The organization also lowered its 2027 growth projection for Canada to 1.3 per cent, though it pointed to stronger private consumption, government investment and a gradual recovery in business investment as offsetting factors. The OECD said uncertainty over the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement is likely to weigh on regional trade growth.
Alberta Outlook Diverges From National Trend
The trade dispute with the United States is expected to continue weighing on Canadian investment and employment growth, compounded by higher energy prices following disruptions tied to the war involving Iran, which has effectively blocked oil and liquefied natural gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above US$100 a barrel last week before moderating, closing at $94.61 on Thursday.
Higher oil prices could translate into increased spending in Alberta’s energy sector, while investment in data centres in the province is also increasing. On Thursday, ATB Financial released a new economic outlook projecting 2.6 per cent growth for Alberta this year, well above the 0.9 per cent expected for the Canadian economy as a whole. ATB said Alberta is outperforming the national economy in areas including population growth, retail sales and job creation.
ATB chief economist Mark Parsons said forecasting is especially difficult right now given the scale of downside risks, pointing to the war in the Middle East, rising energy costs for consumers and businesses, and expectations of higher interest rates heading into next year. He said the upside for Alberta stems from growing interest in expanding domestic activity and policies aimed at fast-tracking major projects, adding that the province has performed relatively well given current geopolitical tensions and appears well-positioned heading into 2027.
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