Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a closing appeal to voters in Alberta on Friday, warning that a referendum pathway toward independence poses economic risks for the province and the country at a time when the United States is pursuing a trade war against Canada and President Donald Trump has suggested Canada could become the 51st state.
Carney called the vote, set for Monday, a “dangerous bluff” that could lead to “years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians.” The ballot does not ask Albertans to vote directly on independence; instead, it asks whether the province should remain part of Canada or instruct its government to begin the legal process toward a future separation referendum. Alberta holds most of Canada’s proven oil reserves, which are the fourth largest in the world.
Carney and Smith Present United Front
Carney spent two days campaigning against separation in Alberta, including an appearance alongside Alberta’s conservative premier, Danielle Smith, in Red Deer. Smith credited Carney with improving federal-provincial relations compared with his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, with whom Alberta had clashed over carbon tax and energy policy. Smith said Carney had substantially addressed seven of nine federal laws Alberta had opposed and pointed to cooperation on a proposed oil pipeline as evidence of progress.
Smith, who opposes independence herself, called the referendum despite that opposition. She has cited a poll showing 22% of Albertans support separation — a figure she said remains too high. She also faces pressure from separatist-leaning members within her own United Conservative Party; former premier Jason Kenney said the independence movement gained influence within the party through activists who were angered by COVID-19 restrictions.
Economic Dependence on the U.S. a Central Theme
At rallies in Calgary and Edmonton, Carney received his strongest applause when discussing reducing Canada’s economic dependence on the United States. He acknowledged long-standing Alberta frustration with federal energy policy, saying Ottawa had historically made Albertans feel their resources were not their own, while also stressing his personal ties to the province, where he grew up and remains an Edmonton Oilers fan.
Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, Carney’s political rival, also urged Albertans to remain part of Canada, telling them not to “leave your fellow Canadians behind.”
Divisions Remain on Other Ballot Questions
While Carney and Smith agree on urging Alberta to stay in Canada, they are divided on nine other questions on Monday’s ballot related to immigration and provincial powers. Smith is urging voters to approve those measures, while Carney has urged their rejection.
Not all Albertans support the referendum being held at all. Deb Lee, a retired Calgary resident who voted in advance to remain in Canada, said she viewed the vote as unnecessary given what she described as a small portion of the population pushing for separation. Independence advocate Tanya Clemens dismissed the agreements reached between Carney and Smith as conditional commitments she characterized as “basically pinky promises.”
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